Surrogates

Surrogates: a graduate textbook or professional handbook on topics at the interface between machine learning spatial statistics computer simulation meta-modeling (i. e. emulation) design of experiments and optimization. Experimentation through simulation human out-of-the-loop statistical support (focusing on the science) management of dynamic processes online and real-time analysis automation and practical application are at the forefront. Topics include: Gaussian process (GP) regression for flexible nonparametric and nonlinear modeling. Applications to uncertainty quantification sensitivity analysis calibration of computer models to field data sequential design/active learning and (blackbox/Bayesian) optimization under uncertainty. Advanced topics include treed partitioning local GP approximation modeling of simulation experiments (e. g. agent-based models) with coupled nonlinear mean and variance (heteroskedastic) models. Treatment appreciates historical response surface methodology (RSM) and canonical examples but emphasizes contemporary methods and implementation in R at modern scale. Rmarkdown facilitates a fully reproducible tour complete with motivation from application to and illustration with compelling real-data examples. Presentation targets numerically competent practitioners in engineering physical and biological sciences. Writing is statistical in form but the subjects are not about statistics. Rather theyâre about prediction and synthesis under uncertainty; about visualization and information design and decision making computing and clean code. . Language: English